TODAY: Poles Head to the Polls
Since 2015, the ruling party in Poland has been Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, known more commonly as PiS. This “Law and Justice” party is widely regarded as right-wing, populist, and seen by many as highly controversial and at times corrupt in its practices. Today, Sunday, October 15th, the Polish people head to the polls to decide whether to have PiS continue, or chart a new, more EU-friendly course. As of this writing, the polling suggests PiS has a comfortable lead, with data from Politico reflecting a 7-point advantage.
I have lived in Poland for the past three years, in the capital city of Warsaw. In this time, I’ve become very familiar with PiS, with everyone seeming to have a strong opinion about them. In the classroom, students often ask me my opinion of them. In the streets, protests and signage and conversations about them are omnipresent. This election is almost comparable to the United States elections of 2016 and, in particular, 2020, in that it really seems to be more of a referendum on PiS than about any of their opponents’ merits.
The opposition is led by Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and president of the European Council, who has become as much a European figure as he has been a Polish one. He is at the helm of an alliance known as Koalicja Obywatelska (KO), which includes his own party, known simply in English as Civic Platform (PO). Mr. Tusk certainly represents a stark contrast from PiS and the other conservative parties, but has recently made attempts to accrue some degree of support from the right, by speaking some of the same tune on immigration.
PiS is led, principally, by a man named Jarosław Kaczyński – and no, American readers, he is of no relation to the Unabomber. He is, however, brother to the late Lech Kaczyński, the president of Poland from 2005 until April 10th, 2010, when his Polish Air Force jet crashed in Smolensk, killing everyone on board. There is much to discuss on this topic alone, but I will save this for another day.
It is important to note that unlike his brother, Jarosław Kaczyński is not the president of Poland – that would be Andrzej Duda. Nor is he the current prime minister (he was from 2006-07) – that would be Mateusz Morawiecki. So who is Kaczyński, and why is it that when people speak of PiS, it is assumed they are speaking of him? He is, of course, the leader of PiS and has been since 2003. Additionally, he is the deputy prime minister to Mr. Morawiecki. But similar to Dick Cheney vis-à-vis George W. Bush, it is widely assumed by many that real power lies in the hands of Kaczyński; however, the extent to which this is the case, I cannot say with any certainty.
There’s a deeply intriguing discussion to be had about all of this and more in Polish politics, and over time I do hope to unravel it for you in greater detail. One question that has arisen in US politics in the past is the importance of honest governance versus the importance of effective governance. Is it more important for a government to be honest and play fair, or to effectively represent and work for its populace? Some argue the economic transformation of Poland – a country that may well surpass the UK by decade’s end – is irrelevant to PiS. Others insist PiS has played a significant role in this. And at a time when extremism on the European continent threatens people in France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, and elsewhere, is a government like PiS the only solution?
So long as the Polish economy has upward momentum, immigration policies are seen as correct and distinct from neighboring countries who are experiencing difficulties, and Poles feel safe, with their status as a staunchly Catholic nation protected, I do not personally foresee PiS losing power in any impactful way. So, while there may be legitimate concerns of PiS’ treatment of press freedom, intergovernmental institutions including the EU, and other controversial policies, what may supersede this are doubts that alternative parties will markedly improve Poland on issues relating to immigration, criminality, the economy, and the Catholic faith. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” – the question becomes this: is Poland ‘broke’? I am not so sure.
